The strong historical relationship between the level of the help-wanted index and the year-on-year growth of payroll employment has broken down completely.
Quotes about help-wanted (8 Quotes)
Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summerearly fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.
There was nothing else like it around, ... Not willing to leave the New Iberia area, I jumped at the opportunity when I saw the help-wanted ad.
The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.
These data continue to suggest that labor market conditions are much more robust that recent payroll employment and help-wanted reports have indicated.
Overall, the U. S. labor market is off to a very solid start in 2006 as strong business fundamentals continue to boost employer demand for workers, creating more job opportunities and driving the unemployment rate down to well below 5 percent. Demand for workers in the U. S. remains elevated at the outset of the year, while the online migration of help-wanted advertising continues at a rapid pace. The Index's findings for February clearly indicate greater confidence among employers throughout much of the country, largely due to the underlying strength of the economy. This is encouraging news for job seekers and bodes well for this year's class of college graduates as they begin their search for employment.
Because of the dramatic shift in job advertising market share from newspapers to the Internet, the help-wanted index has lost much of its luster.
The Conference Board's latest help-wanted index, also released on Thursday, contributed to the tepid mood. The index fell a point to 37 from 38 in July. Help-wanted advertising volume has pretty much remained unchanged during the past six months. Overall economic momentum is no longer firing on all cylinders, ... And hiring intentions this summer are suggestive that companies may not increase hiring until the economy regains more solid footing.