Signals for the immediate future point to continued expansion, although not at the breakneck pace of the fourth quarter of 1999, ... The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion continues to be interest-rate increases and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve Board action.
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The labor market picture remains cloudy.Ken Goldstein
Consumers are concerned that wages are not keeping pace with inflation, and managers feel they can't raise prices. It's difficult to imagine how both can be satisfied in 2006.
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The labor market picture remains a bit cloudy. There are some bright spots where the job market may be picking up, but it's by no means a clear picture.
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Rising business costs and uncertainty in many companies about price hikes is a major consideration now in how fast the domestic economy can grow, especially in the second half of the year.
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The performance of the leading index is suggestive of continued momentum or growth in the spring.
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Add this to the negative impact of the hurricanes and flooding, resulting in lost jobs and incomes, and lost output, and we could be in for slower growth through the end of the year.
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