It seems so tied to the price of oil, that it's very hard to forecast what stocks will do next. On balance the message of the markets for the last nine trading sessions, including today, seems to have shifted to say that the price of oil is taking a chunk out of consumer spending.
More Quotes from Hugh Johnson:
Even though they've bought some stocks this time, they haven't come storming back like they did last October.Hugh Johnson
Everybody's looking for every single data point that can possibly give them an edge in their analysis. I've seen folks put together a ratio of stock prices to weekly jobless claims, suggesting it's a leading indicator. That's preposterous, but there's an urge to move in that direction, to find every leading indicator you can get every day.
Hugh Johnson
Which doesn't mean it's time to liquidate all positions in large caps. There are reasons why large cap companies have done better, ... What's very intriguing is, that's changing.
Hugh Johnson
The simple truth is the economy rebounded from the fourth quarter and was very strong in the first quarter as measured by (gross domestic product). Secondly, based on what we've heard from companies, profit margins should be good.
Hugh Johnson
A 25-basis point rise is built into the markets. What's not built in, and there's a chance this could happen, is that they might shift the balance of risks to favor inflation, which would mean that rates will rise more aggressively next year.
Hugh Johnson
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