The laws of economics still apply and higher prices call forth more supply while dampening demand. The long view of the market's history, filled with booms and busts, is on our side.
There is a very strong consensus that gold will continue its trend higher this year and that, in itself, is a warning sign.
This would be bullish for gold.
It's staging what I would call a catch-up move. After resisting the upward pull of silver all week long, the market couldn't hold back any more and is making up for lost time here.
The weather outlook remains a potential fundamental support for these markets, but it has been so well advertised and has failed to boost prices to such an extent as to suggest that it is still too little winter, too late in the season to matter.
Stocks have a tendency toward a counter-seasonal rise in early January ... but the mild readings this time around make a further 2 to 3 million barrel build more likely than the 1.1 million barrel five-year average increase.
The markets are all doing their best spin jobs off the latest round of DOE data, but there were really no significant surprises. The overall economic importance of the data is still bearish.
It's having trouble getting out of its own way. Fundamentally, the CPI data from this morning was really quite mixed.
Really, we've had some focus (on oil) since mid-February, when both markets made a significant low, and both markets had a near retest of those lows on Wednesday. Oil is emerging as the focus for the gold market as a surrogate for general commodity inflation. Without that kind of commodity inflation, then gold becomes a less attractive investment.
The oil companies themselves aren't interested in building new refineries and will tend to denigrate the chances of any new investors actually succeeding in their business. They'll say, 'What does Richard Branson know about oil refineries' He doesn't have to know about that part of the business, but he can easily see that oil refiners are making a margin far superior to what he's making in the airline business.
We wanted to connect with people as strongly as some of our great advertising campaigns of the past did -- such as with Beattie with Maureen Lipman or Bob Hoskins in 'It's good to talk' -- but in a way that's relevant to today's modern relationships.
The numbers are sufficient, but there are major constraints. There is a huge mal-distribution of workers in the country and most health workers are found in urban areas.
There still may be ample opportunity for price chopping off storm updates over the balance of the week, but the market is looking considerably more relaxed today.
The OPEC demand revision is more of a reminder than anything else. Between the high level of crude stocks and the downward revisions to demand, the price should have trouble climbing like it has done this week.
To put that offer on the table for the next three months, it's clear to me that they're willing to steer the price lower, ... They really don't want every U.S. consumer to park their SUV and buy gasoline-electric hybrids -- they don't want to trigger that kind of consumer response.
In a ballroom, all you can do is dance and eat. We wanted to provide more than just dancing. They ate and danced, and when they got tired, they went out and looked at exhibits. Then they came back and danced some more.
Consumers would benefit from more refinery capacity and more competition in the refinery business.
We're really just trying to achieve a little bit of a balance between follow-through selling after Tuesday's big drop and a little bit of bargain hunting on the other side of the ring, trying to pick a bottom here.
A 40-cent rise in gasoline prices does not stimulate demand, and frankly this is where I think many macroeconomic forecasts for 2006 are going to miss the mark.
Africa has 2.3 workers per 1,000 people. The Americas have 24.8 per 1,000 people. If you are a doctor in Africa, you have 10 fold (more) diseases to deal with compared to your colleagues in other regions.
This could be almost worse than Katrina because there are 4 million barrels of refining in Texas areas, much more than there was in New Orleans. (Texas) is the other major refining heart.
I was looking for a rebound in imports as some of the activity along the Gulf Coast came back to normal.
The situation is not going to get better in the short term. Perhaps it will get worse.
The market does have its ongoing concerns about Iran, the new bombing campaign in Iraq and other potential threats to supply (Nigeria, Venezuela) in mind as background issues.
The bulls are trying to put up a fight here, trying to make a case that the build in stocks and the drop in price over the past month haven't really hurt all that bad.
There's a lot of people who want to do the right thing. My kids are out in the orchard, too. I don't want to poison them.
I'm surprised by the drop in crude stocks and the further decline in crude oil imports,
Profit-taking was the most widely employed term for what (happened Friday), but we see the potential for this simple turn to develop into a much more substantial decline, as the fundamentals behind the push higher were not all that strong to begin with.
It is a surprising report in just about all respects. But I think it is something that we have to expect in times like these that the data doesn't always fit into a neat little model of what we think ought to be happening.
There may be more cycles of hyperventilation yet to come as Hurricane Rita blows through the Gulf of Mexico, but the DOE data for last week was a calming influence.
It is pretty clear they were attempting to move this oil into a crude oil market where there was already a surplus.
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