It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.
The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.
Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
China's senior leadership gets it while many outside the country do not.
This is just another nail in the coffin for the world economy.
He's the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.
For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.
Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble.
There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U. S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected,
Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years.
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters. That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
I honestly believe that if China were to revalue its currency upward by 10 percent -- a change I do not expect nor advise -- its exports would suffer minimal loss of market share,
If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.
An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era,
I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility,
Mine didn't even rhyme, ... But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.
Never in modern history has the world's leading economic power tried to do so much with so little. Now Washington is upping the ante as it opens the fiscal spigot to cope with post-Katrina reconstruction at the same time it is funding the ongoing war in Iraq. Could this be a tipping point for America's shoestring economy
I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.
That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn.
China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.
Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.
The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
Conventional wisdom has it that globalization is a win-win but that is increasingly looking like a pipe dream. There is no escaping the concerns that workers in high-wage countries have.
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermine
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.
By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.
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