I thought the result would have been a little more even because of the dire news that we were getting after Thanksgiving about slowing sales. So this (sales showing) is a pleasant surprise,
I'm concerned that Wal-Mart could be the harbinger of some broader weakness. With everything they had going for them, Wal-Mart still came in at the low end of a not-very-aggressive plan. I wouldn't be surprised if we'll see more companies miss expectations than beat expectations.
They're going to have to watch the bottom line and the margins very closely, ... This holiday season, retailers are going to be fighting for customers and fewer discretionary dollars.
It was a complete egg that was laid there. By all accounts, they got killed in apparel.
The deceleration in earnings growth is a significant concern. Techs are up against steep comparisons in the second half of this year and the first half of next year,
Best Buy traditionally has been the primary player here and taking share very aggressively from some of the other players in the space, but Circuit City looks to have held their own here this holiday season. The discounters have tried to get into the space. Wal-Mart's been very aggressive in moving in there.
These two companies have been lighting it up. They had a super December and they've generally been showing decent sales and earnings growth compared to other names in the specialty retail sector.
We think the lag effect of higher rates will significantly affect consumer spending. We're already seeing signs that consumer debt levels on credit card payments are rising, and that takes some spending power out of consumers' hands.
You really have to take March and April as a package deal because of the 2 to 3 percentage point shift that usually takes place because of the Easter holiday.
I am very perplexed by these results. I had expected 50 percent of the 64 retailers that we track would have missed their sales forecasts. But two-third of that universe have beat so far.
For the past two to three years, this sector is struggling very hard in terms of trying to excite the consumer, with the exception of the high-end players like Nordstrom or Neiman Marcus.
That number may go up to 3.9 percent growth now.
That's well above the long term average of 54 percent beating and 42 percent falling short of expectations.
We don't have an opinion or more importantly a vote one way or another. We're not thrilled with it ... but it's essentially up to the analysts.
That's a pretty long stretch, and investors are concerned that earnings could take a hit unless sales improve.
Everybody is waiting to see whether they can carry the momentum they've built this year into next year despite the tough holiday period.
I wouldn't read this at all as a shift in consumer trends. Discounters are benefiting from a weak economy and they have been taking market share from department stores.
There wasn't a lot of color offered in press releases this morning on this great performance, but given the number of retailers that indicated strong gift card sales over the holidays, it looks like there were some pretty strong gift card redemptions taking place in January. Warm weather appears to have helped drive traffic as well and it helped retailers sell spring merchandise at full price.
January was a one of the warmest months in over a 100 years. So that not only drove sales of spring clothing and other seasonal merchandise earlier than usual but it also probably stole some sales from February.
The first two quarters of last year were OK but not stellar. If we still have double digit increases in earnings during the third quarter, that would be good news.
The market is in terrible shape and the prospects for growth are not good,
April comps will reap the benefits of Easter holiday sales. But as usually is the case with March and April, it's best to view the two months on a combined basis. Retailers find themselves against a stiff 7.1 percent gain a year ago.
Weather transitioned from a major negative in May to a major positive in June,
Instead of hearing about gas woes, we actually saw a handful of companies raise their earnings estimates. That was a nice surprise.
There's a deep concern that if this thing goes on, a lot of Christmas merchandise hitting the docks can't be transferred.
The Conference Board's November consumer confidence Index fell in November for the fourth consecutive month and was noticeably weak among lower income consumers.
Retailers are facing slightly more difficult year-over-year sales comparisons in February and the weather is unlikely to be as cooperative over the next two months as it was in January.
This is setting a foundation for earnings to rebound. There might be some positive news in the second quarter.
The news has been pretty positive given the headwinds consumers and retailers alike have been facing, ... encouraging.
We've finally got a great February. The first set of numbers indicates that this was a blowout month with the kind of sales gains that we haven't seen in a while.
Consumers really felt the pinch of higher gas prices and job growth is stagnant.
As rates continue to rise, there's less ability for consumers to refinance and take money out of their houses.
Fourth-quarter retail earnings are expected to grow 13.5 percent. That's below last year's growth and could come down further if we see plenty of promotions.
The last time Wal-Mart had a monthly same-store sales gain that low was back in December of 2000, with a 0.3 percent rise. Prior to that was in April of 1996, with a 0.2 percent gain. That was probably another year when Easter got pushed into April.
We are going to see the effect of higher energy prices trickle up to the middle-income consumers.
Profits are on the rebound but is it sustainable Given the extent of the previous bubble in tech, the recovery should be slower. There's a whiff of a pickup in business spending but not enough to hang your hat on just yet.
There's a feeling that consumer spending could certainly get a boost as the first Fed rate cuts will have been in place for 8-9 months. And people will start receiving their checks from the tax rebate. Things are looking up for the retailers. I think the comparisons are looking better too.
August is the big month because that's when the bulk of the back-to-school revenues are generated, ... But we got some very positive signs in July, especially with apparel sales showing the strongest monthly gains. Apparel sales are important because they provide the first indication of how consumers are spending their discretionary income.
If numbers are better than expected and the news is good for second quarter outlooks, then we could rally on that. But I think the results are pretty much baked into the cake here.
On average, comparable sales grew 5.8 percent just in those three months compared to an average of 2.6 percent in the last six months of 2004, ... The first-half of the year will be a big challenge.
The impressive part is that it's not just the luxury names posting strong numbers. The big numbers are coming in for the department stores and apparel names as well.
If the price of oil remains between 45 to 50 a barrel, that's not a good sign especially if we experience a very cold winter. Heating oil prices will go up and that's likely to dampen consumer spending during the winter months.
One obvious explanation (for the weakness) is that investors are aware that Best Buy faces much tougher sales comparisons, particularly in the second half of the year. Looking at the numbers, second-quarter sales were up 7.8 percent, third-quarter sales rose 5.8 percent.
I don't think it would have too much impact on the rest of the year even if we ended up with a decline. The second quarter is essentially in the book.
These numbers are not good. As one analyst put it, October will be the nightmare before Christmas.
There were a number of factors that dampened consumer spending,
Next month is the first time the company marks the anniversary of positive sales comparisons. From here on, the comparisons get increasingly difficult.
On the economic front, there haven't been significant improvements in jobs and wage growth, and the comparable sales comparisons are only getting tougher, ... It sounds reasonable to expect big discounts this year. The macro factors would suggest it.
Is this just a blip on the radar I think it could be. The economy seems to be snapping back. The third-quarter GDP number was a blowout number. I don't think it will be that great in the fourth quarter, but consumer spending will hold through the holidays. Also, retailers will be benefiting from easier comparisons in November and December.
Wal-Mart dropped a bomb on the market with earnings guidance at the low end of its 82-86 cents range, as they clearly saw some margin pressure and most likely increased advertising and promotional expenses.
More Ken Perkins Quotations (Based on Topics)
Sales - Weather - Christianity - Thanksgiving Day - Christmas - Media & News - Business & Commerce - Planning - Emotions - Tax - Performance - Opinions - Winter - Man - Space - Books - Place - Past - Woman - View All Ken Perkins Quotations
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -