Josh Stiles Quotes (17 Quotes)

A lot of Friday's action was due to short-covering after the labor report looked weaker than people had expected. But the upcoming supply forces people to question whether they really want to endorse these lower yield levels.

It doesn't look like from what we are seeing this morning that the economy is recessionary, and now it's probably going to cast some doubt on how aggressive the Fed is going to want to be from here,

This is always a difficult number for the market to deal with.

We don't know enough about him to know whether there might be a surprise attack so there is some caution. But overall, the 10-year yield has been in a range of 4 58 to 4 12 for weeks and today, we're right in the middle of that range.

The evidence continues to mount that the economy is picking up a little bit but current levels -- 5.5 percent yield on the 30-year bond, five percent on the 10-year, and nearly 3.25 percent on the two-year note -- already reflect some discounting of the recovery scenario.

We saw moderation in the indices on prices paid, employment, and six-month business conditions outlook. That offset the impact of the headline number.

The new weakness, which is probably related to the hurricane and oil, definitely set in, ... But this number was a classic dilemma for the market, because the prices paid really rocketed higher.

There's concern for how the stock market has done recently. I do think bond traders have their eye on the stock market.

We don't look at this number and say it's the end of manufacturing strength. Still, it hasn't hurt the bond market.

The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points in September and then, because inflation pressures are contained, they pause for a while, skipping a move in November and maybe even December. The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory.

The market took the report in context -- which is that it is often distorted by aircraft orders. It didn't really ignite the bond bulls that the headline number was down so much.

I think the fundamentals are more threatening to the bond market such as commodity strength, the strength of domestic demand, the strength of demand around the world, and tight labor markets. So, there are plenty of things for the bond market to get worried about.

The market's starting to look further ahead. There seems to be the sentiment that the economy will cool and the Fed (once it hikes interest rates later this month) will be done.

I do think the rise in oil is significant enough already that that's going to buy us headline inflation higher in the next few months. We'll probably get up toward 3 percent.

at the bigger monetary picture.

He's been wrong about what's happening with inflation for two years. He's more focused on structural disinflation forces than he is on the cyclical inflationary forces from excessive accommodation,

The bottom line is, agencies will maintain their highest credit rating. Agencies are looking like pretty good value.