David Lereah Quotes (83 Quotes)

Since 1971 there have been only five months when mortgage interest rates were lower, and all of those have been during the last year and a half.

When the government has a high budget deficit, it needs to borrow money at a greater rate, which it does by issuing bonds. What you see is the government competing with corporations in the bond market, which means something has to give, ... crowding out effect.

The drop in pending home sales is an affirmation that we are experiencing a modest slowing in the housing sector.

You want to make sure homes are affordable when they start to increase at lofty rates, you start to worry about affordability, ... But certainly, right now, the fundamentals are so good in housing that if we have a drop-off in price gains, it's still going to be at healthy levels.

In the last two years housing has been the beneficiary of a weak economy.

We've had favorable housing affordability conditions for some time, but what's new is the effect of a gradual increase in consumer confidence, combined with a turnaround in the economy, ... As a result, some people who've held back from major commitments over the last few months have entered the housing market.

This is a big number any way you slice it, and housing is continuing to stimulate the overall economy.

So, 2005, when we look back, was the best year in housing in recent memory, probably of all time.

In examining the hottest markets for home-price appreciation, we see a rolling boom moving from one metro area to another over time, as well as a spillover effect into nearby areas with lower home prices, ... That is spreading the wealth of housing returns, with a natural ease of appreciation in areas following a period of extraordinary price growth.

It's a simple matter of supply and demand. We continue to have more home buyers than sellers in most of the country, which results in tight housing inventories and higher rates of home price appreciation.

This is a very tight inventory situation, which is continuing to drive home price appreciation.

In 2007, you'll have positive home-sales growth and you'll have positive price appreciation.

Looking forward the outlook for housing is mixed. I do expect some slowing of home sales and price appreciation going forward.

A lot of demand has been met over the last five years, and a modest rise in mortgage interest rates is causing some market cooling.

We're bringing the demand and supply more in balance with each other. We can gradually see price appreciation decline a bit, but in a gradual, manageable way.

The (Pending Home Sales) index has been fluctuating in a fairly narrow range over the last six months -- a very high range -- so the overall market is moving forward with a lot of momentum.

This means a modest slowing can be expected in the sales pace in the months ahead, although the market will hold at historically strong levels.

Given the demands of a growing population, and with real estate becoming the safe haven for investment, many factors are in place for a continuation of strong home sales.

Our definition of second homes has changed with the buyer shift toward investment property, ... In examining Census data to determine the number of investment units, we see that second homes are a much larger share than the conventional mind-set of them being mostly vacation homes.

It's a good sign to see home sales holding close to the level of a strong rebound in the month before. This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a soft landing. We may see some minor slowing in home sales as interest rates rise, but the market clearly is stabilizing.

I don't think we are going to see a drop in home sales in other parts of the country. I don't think economic jitters are going to hurt home sales,

Although interest rates are rising modestly, an improving job market is creating a favorable backdrop for home sales, but at a somewhat slower pace in the months ahead.

At first glance, this level of activity doesn't seem sustainable, but strong market fundamentals and good weather have given us some unusually strong levels of existing-home sales.

I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we've seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end of next year.

It's a nice rebound, but we have to discount some of this because of the warm weather in January, particularly in the Northeast. We may give a little of this back in the next month or two.

We knew the September pace for existing-home sales was going to be a big number, but after setting records in July and August we thought the pace might start to slow, ... This underscores the powerful fundamentals that are driving the housing market -- household growth, low interest rates and an improving economy.

Modeling a relationship between economic and commercial market indicators, as well as market trends and sentiment, will provide us with a new tool in assessing market behavior in the major commercial real estate sectors. It is being designed as an index to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in commercial real estate activity.

I worry about a budget deficit more than anything else, ... If the Bush administration continues to cut taxes and build up military, it will result in a higher budget deficit, which will lead to higher interest rates.

The present level of home sales activity is considerably above last year's record, and the new benchmark we'll set in 2004 is a significant contributor to overall U.S. economic growth.

Changes in the overall direction of the housing market are akin to a large ship making course corrections - it takes some time for the driving factors to materialize as a change in the sales level. In many recent transactions we're looking at a delayed effect of mortgage interest rates that peaked in November but are now lower than expected. Mortgage applications have trended up in recent weeks, so we shouldn't be surprised to see pending home sales rise in the next couple months.

Considering the nation essentially came to a halt during the week of the attack, we knew there would be a hit on home sales activity.

These historically high home-price gains are the simple result of more buyers than sellers in the market. The good news is that the supply of homes on the market has been trending up and we are entering a period of a more normal balance in supply and demand.

With 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates a little under 7.0 percent, and expected to stay near this level for the balance of the year, we project existing-home sales to nearly match last year's performance.

Existing home sales should stay below the record levels experienced for the last two years, but they'll maintain a historically high pace.

There are still lean inventories in a lot of the hot markets and that's why I have a lot of confidence that these balloons won't burst. They're balloons, not bubbles.

Although mortgage interest rates have risen in the last month, housing affordability conditions remain favorable.

A new record is a bit unexpected, but so is the performance of mortgage interest rates which have been lower than forecast. When we look at recent job gains, we see all the positive factors coming together to coincide with a powerful demographic demand for housing.

Some of the cooling is coming from non-boom markets such as Detroit, where there are job problems. I do worry about those markets if the economy continues to slow, though we do expect the economy to pick up in the first quarter.

What we have here is still the soft-landing scenario we've been predicting over this year. I suspect the increase we have in this report is an aberration because of the weather.

The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.

Home sales will move up and down somewhat over the remainder of the year but stay at a high plateau, meaning this will be the third-strongest year on record.

When mortgage interest rates first began to rise from record lows, it appears some buyers jumped into the market to take advantage of good affordability conditions before interest rates moved even higher.

In my opinion it's terrible timing--it's almost irresponsible. That would do severe damage to a lot of the local markets across the nation. We are looking at probably a 10 to 15 percent drop in home prices.

The Boomers are in their peak earning years, buying second homes and retiring to Florida. We're seeing a lot of development and a lot of building but demand is greater than supply.

This is a great time to lock in.

On the other hand, investment home sales are likely to decline this year, in part because of higher interest rates. There are fewer incentives to speculate in the market with price appreciation cooling in much of the country.

In the wake of interest rates peaking in November, I expect we are in a bit of a trough that may be followed by a modest rise and then a general plateau in the level of sales activity.

Home sales are staying at very healthy levels. Housing inventory improved in August, but remain tight, and we have some way to go before we get into a range of balance between home buyers and sellers.

Clearly, mortgage interest rates that are near 30-year lows are bringing many buyers into the market at the beginning of the traditional home-buying season, ... and we're counting on the Federal Reserve to continue its accommodative interest rate policy to keep housing strong.

A modest downtrend to a sales volume that is expected to be the second-best year ever in 2006 will be good for the long-term health of the housing sector.