Daniel Yergin Quotes (45 Quotes)

In real terms, consumers today are paying considerably less for gasoline than they did during World War I.

A more relevant description would be a plateau in production capacity that might be reached in the fourth or fifth decade of this century.

The starting point for energy security today as it has always been is diversification of supplies and sources.

People always underestimate the impact of technology. To give you an example: In the 1970s the frontier for offshore development was 200 meters, today it is 4,000 meters.

Whereas they used to have a higher price range, say 17 to 21 a barrel, now people say prices could be at 11, 12, 15 for a long time, or at least you can't bet your company that they are going to be higher, and that has led to this powerful motive to merge as the next stage of getting your costs under control and spreading them out over a larger base.

I think we've seen a change in the mentality of the senior management of the oil industry over the last few months,

The North Sea was supposed to run out in the 1980s. Then in the 1990s. And now production is still on-line.

This is the fifth time that we're supposedly running out of oil,

We experienced similiar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.

First, we have to find a common vocabulary for energy security. This notion has a radically different meaning for different people. For Americans it is a geopolitical question. For the Europeans right now it is very much focused on the dependence on imported natural gas.

This has a lot to do with the unrest in Nigeria, but also with the production loss after the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the decline in Iraq since the 2003 war, and the decline in Venezuelan output since 2002.

If they don't ease more oil into the market over the next six weeks, we could see prices spike a good deal higher than they are now.

Ethanol is mandating additional diversity to the pool of motor fuels. The definition of oil is being widened.

The last time before this time was in the 1970s, when people thought we were going to fall off the oil mountain and live in an age of permanent shortage. Since then, world supplies have increased 60 percent. I don't see why we're at the end of technology now, or why it would be finished now.

There are ample supplies beneath the surface of the planet to have significant growth in oil supply for quite a number of years. The technology is there, the resources are there. But the real question is what happens above ground.

The Russians are turning east to the Chinese - to the Europeans' surprise. It always seemed to me that the relationship between Russia and China would shift from being based in Marx and Lenin to being based in oil and gas.

We are living in a different world now. You can see it everywhere in international relations: It was noteworthy that, after his visit to Washington, the Chinese president's next stop was Saudi Arabia.

I think the producers, for the most part, don't want to see prices skyrocket because that will only create problems for them down the road and would also be a, you know, would be a very serious shock for a world economy that can't afford serious shocks right now.

But that's not enough: To maintain energy security, one needs a supply system that provides a buffer against shocks. It needs large, flexible markets. And it's important to acknowledge the fact that the entire energy supply chain needs to be protected.

Everywhere in the world, moving from control to decontrol of prices creates turbulence and also political costs.

A lot of consumers, particularly in New York and other places, are already seeing 3 a gallon. I think the question is will most consumers be seeing 3.50 and 4 At this point it's a real possibility.

It's extraordinary how inventive one can be with ethanol right now.

Depending on what we learn in the next few days this may be the biggest oil-supply shock since the 1970s. We are now in the days of reckoning.

In a couple of years, the Chinese will be seen as regular participants in international industry. Their companies have to report to shareholders as well as to the Chinese authorities. They need to make money, they have to be efficient.

But the key thing is that Iraq, while it's got very large oil reserves, has marginalized itself as an oil exporter and these days its exports are only about one tenth that of neighboring Saudi Arabia.

But eventually it's a question of access: Getting access to fields is on top of the oil companies' agenda. We see a substantial build-up of supply occurring over the coming years.

He's wonderful at stirring up an argument and slinging around rhetoric. ... For some of these people, it seems to be a theological issue. For us, it's an analytic issue.

This is not the first time that the world has 'run out of oil. It's more like the fifth. Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of the oil industry.

Clearly, the Chinese need the resources, but I don't think they want to clash with the industrial world which happens to be the market for their goods.

This further underlies the need for greater diversity of supply and more storage capacity for natural gas. Gas-importing countries will recognize the need to build in buffers.

We are living in a new age of energy supply anxiety.

If a war started, the oil price probably would go up, as you said, maybe $5, $6 a barrel until you saw other oil from the extra supplies that are available elsewhere coming into the world, into the market.

Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.

So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.

Within four or five years the US might be getting 10 percent of its gasoline from ethanol - that would be like creating a new Indonesia.

You'll have innovators and entrepreneurs and people trying ideas that may seem sensible today or may seem way out. But out of that whole soup will emerge some new ways of doing things.

This further underlines the need for greater diversity of supply and more storage capacity for natural gas.

When you adjust it for inflation, a year ago we were looking at gasoline prices that were cheaper than they had been during the Great Depression. So it was an extraordinary bargain.

The bulk of extra supplies that could be put into the market come from two places. One, they come from other Persian Gulf suppliers, of which Saudi Arabia is at the top of the list.

But look at Angola The Chinese spent a lot of money to get in there, but they are among many other companies. It is a much bigger game.

This is a long-lead-time business the investment horizon is five, 10 or 20 years. There's no switch to pull.

A premium in the oil price of somewhere between 10 to 15 dollars a barrel reflects this heightened anxiety.

Even Silicon Valley investors have put well over a $1 billion in new energy technologies.

The other are the strategic, so-called strategic stocks that the United States and the other Western industrial countries have, which could put in as much as four million barrels a day of oil into the market pretty quickly.

Gas prices are clearly reaching a level where it's a political problem for people, ... unless you empty the reserve, it is a very temporary expedient. It does not affect the basic supply-and-demand problem.