Anthony Crescenzi Quotes (63 Quotes)

The refinancing boom and effects from the tax rebates are waning, so spending on big-ticket items such as cars may be slowing down, ... But spending on services, which is where the majority of the job creation occurs, has held on, and we expect it to pick up. Friday's payroll report should be a good indication of that.

I think we have conditions in place now that could put off the tightening. Unfortunately, there is some inflation embedding itself.

They have a lot of good will built up it would take repeated actions like this for the Fed to lose credibility. But if they continue to talk pessimistically while the numbers call for a more optimistic outlook, there will begin to be a disconnect between where the Fed would like to see interest rates and where investors believe rates should be.

Greenspan's comments have been so specific to the markets and costs, ... The price index was worse than the market would have liked.

I'm struck, ... Originally I thought that in a recession we could get below 5 percent, but we're not even close to one (a recession.)

In light of the political backdrop, the decline in confidence is understandable and is therefore of little worry, particularly now that the primary season is over,

Rubin said that it is too early to talk about a Brazil rescue plan,

I think it is more psychological than anything, ... But there is concern more money will be put in euro reserves than in dollar reserves.

Even though it falls outside of the survey period, it may be that an individual found a job during the survey period and so didn't have to file a claim in the following weeks, ... It tells a story about labor demand and suggests that has improved.

The Beige Book report raises the possibility of a cut because it emphasize the fear of shift toward tighter lending conditions, ... It did show a tendency toward a new tightening of credit conditions.

The rumor that China will devalue carries little basis in truth (for now). It seems to be largely a by-product of the devaluation of the Brazilian real.

What's the expression 'If your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession, but if you lose your job, it's a depression' Maybe it depends on who's making the definition.

It's time to trade out of investments whose success depends on a strong economy... for both stocks and corporate bonds.

There is a certain skepticism with regard to the rallies that we have seen in the stock market. We have yet to see the worst of the economic news.

There were rumors that the Fed might cut rates today, but of course they did nothing.

In an environment where there is a lot of uncertainty, the short end will get the benefit. The bond is catching up to the strength on the short end.

Expectations are one of the biggest parts of the inflation process,

It remains rational to expect job gains of over 200,000 per month in the upcoming months, ... The longer it takes to reach that point the more likely it is that forecasters will continue to skedaddle and lower their forecasts still further.

The market's applauding the resolve of the Fed and acting accordingly, ... In that way, its behavior is rational.

Traders realize Snow has weekly breakfast meetings with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, and they thought his comments might reflect some type of informed opinion,

In the morning, many people thought the Clinton report would hurt the stock market - but it happened yesterday and Wednesday.

The jobless claim level now is consistent with job growth and is a clear indication that labor demand is quite strong.

This time, they want to keep rates low to fight deflation -- a demon that may have vanished already. They might be successful again, but something else might build up, some other unintended consequence, including some inflation.

The PPI just feeds the deflation talk that's run rampant in the past month or so, ... It's upsetting for someone who believes deflation is on the way. Even though there are qualifiers for the April data, that headline is dramatic enough to convince them.

Today, the market witnessed the other side of that de-leveraging process, ... If this was the fuel driving up bonds recently, there's probably not a lot of that left.

What we're seeing is an increase in the manufacturing sector, ... The manufacturing sector has been very weak for the last year and a half -- since the Asian (financial) crisis. Now, that sector seems to be recovering.

The Fed's history has been that they solve one problem but create another,

The market has done part of the job, but this tightening is not yet substantial -- financial conditions are still near their loosest points in many, many years,

If the economy slows beyond what we've now priced in, which is about a one- to two-percent growth trajectory, then we can begin to see a decline in yields again perhaps.

Right now we have to take a step back and say how much further can we go with this news. Where fed funds are now, at 6.5 percent, makes it somewhat difficult for the (bond) market to trade higher or lower in yield.

The release of the factory orders probably won't change the Fed's decision, ... The report reinforces that the manufacturing sector is recovering.

The Fed needs to align itself with the inflation expectations of the market, unless it has a strong -- and hopefully accurate -- view about how the inflation trend is evolving.

One of the key reasons payrolls exceeded the consensus was due to a 31K gain in manufacturing jobs, the first gain in 11 months. With more of these high-paying jobs in the mix, average wages were pulled higher.

What he did was defend his actions rather than quell the fears of systemic risk. I'm really surprised that he'd do more to stem fears of hedge-fund community fallout.

There are hints now that the worst may be over in the labor story.

Watch for Fed members' comments this week they'll say, 'It's just one month,' ... They tend to look at the cumulative evidence on certain issues before passing any meaningful judgment with policy significance. They need much more than this.

But the resolution of the issue may begin to alleviate fears about systemic risk; Today we should all be looking at our financial system and saying these risks are very low, very few, and that we have a financial system that is sound.

There's only been one spokesperson on the dollar. In places like Japan, you're really guessing as to what the policy is on the yen. No one else speaks for dollar policy - it's a fact. That's why the dollar has had a three-year run against the yen.

The Fed's about to cut rates, and they may cut more from a dearth of sellers than from a host of new buyers. Some people continue to make their bet on the possibility of a 50-basis point move. You see people buying to speculate on a larger cut...you're going to get closer to that meeting and you're going to find fewer sellers.

For so long, an individual who owned a small business or had influence over pricing somehow, would say, 'Prices aren't rising, so we can't raise prices, either.' Now they can see, with this data and through anecdotal evidence, that others are raising prices, and they may feel they can raise their prices now.

The market has priced in a rate cut, of at least a quarter point, ... and this morning it was for a rate cut of .75 - and I think that is where Greenspan would draw the line.

What you're left with is a figure consistent with the inflation rate slowly moving upward,

If Greenspan really wanted to move more aggressively, but felt constrained by the market, he could have taken the opportunity given to him on a silver platter before he made those remarks,

It will reinforce what's happened recently in the debt markets, (the idea) that there's been a sharp underperformance in high-risk assets,

The Fed doesn't want sudden market reactions in response to news that might be difficult they want to cause as little volatility as possible, ... Greenspan has admitted to sending signals in the past -- it's the way they operate.

When risk aversion is declining, money will flow out of the safe-haven Treasury market into riskier assets, ... High-yield bonds have increased in price in the past week holders of junk bonds are doing well right now.

The inflation news due out on Friday with the producer price index and next Tuesday with the consumer price index will probably be unfriendly,

They could have said there's a clear acceleration in economic activity currently under way, but it remains at risk of weakening or reversing, owing to the labor market and other factors. To leave it out completely doesn't make any sense to me -- it's as if they think the market's full of dummies.

The burden of proof is on the bears right now.

I've been calling for the bond yield since the beginning of the year to get toward 6 percent,