Low interest rates and rampant house price appreciation have really been driving borrowing. As long-term rates finally start to rise, the pace of debt accumulation will slow.
More Quotes from Scott Hoyt:
The last week or two of the season can make or break it.Scott Hoyt
The raises in interest rates will reduce the willingness and ability of consumers to continue their pace of borrowing. This is both directly -- through the cost of debt -- and indirectly -- because it's likely to slow house price appreciation.
Scott Hoyt
The surge in building supplies is definitely tied to favorable weather as were increases in restaurant, furniture and department store sales.
Scott Hoyt
Consumer spending is likely to become much more dependent on jobs and confidence by the third quarter, ... If labor markets have not turned, boosting confidence by then, the risk of a significant slowing in consumer spending will be very high.
Scott Hoyt
We're assuming January was all about the weather.
Scott Hoyt
A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.
Scott Hoyt
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