Lucent has run up recently on media discussion of being a take-over target. We believe that in the current environment, this is a possibility.
More Quotes from Michael Ching:
We spoke to Cisco last night, and we do not think there is any change in its business. We believe the factors impacting Intel's results are largely immaterial to Cisco. Cisco has a very modest exposure of revenues to Europe.Michael Ching
In the near-term, Qualcomm's earnings outlook has been diminished due to recent events in China and Korea. For the June quarter, we are currently forecasting 16 percent pro forma revenue growth to 750 million and 26 percent pro forma EPS growth to 27 cents. Based on the company's press release, our EPS estimate looks to be too high.
Michael Ching
The magnitude of this adjustment ... is cause for concern. It is unclear how quickly Lucent will be able to implement, and track, a more conservative set of policies.
Michael Ching
We continue to believe that aggregate service provider spending in the U. S. will actually grow about 10 percent in 2001, and that our companies will report an average revenue increase of 25 percent next year. Despite this, the average price-earnings multiple of our group is now approaching levels last seen in 1997-98.
Michael Ching
Our concern on Qualcomm relates to the outlook for the handset and CDMA business. As we have indicated previously, we remain concerned that the company may take down forecasts for future earnings because we think the company's CDMA forecasts are too aggressive.
Michael Ching
We expect to maintain our estimates at 1.05 a share for 2000 and 1.43 for 2001, so Motorola remains the most attractively valued stock in our universe, at 23 times 2001 EPS estimates.
Michael Ching
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