Some 20 percent of the nation's refining capacity seems to be right in Rita's path. If that gets disrupted at all, then gasoline, jet fuel, natural gas and home heating oil will surge higher.
More Quotes from Mark Zandi:
This is a similar point in the business cycle to when Greenspan took over the reins of the Fed. And of course he was tested right away with the 1987 stock market crash.Mark Zandi
So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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All these statistics reflect the full force of the hurricanes on the broader economy and we will probably have another month of ugly statistics.
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At best, people should prepare for no pay increase and no bonus, something they have been getting a lot of. At worst, they should be thinking they may need to change occupations.
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The baby boom echo generation is now in their mid-teens, at a time when demand for electronics is very high. And they're old enough now to put pressure on their parents to ante up. I know that from personal experience.
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I think the new chairman will be more aggressive in tightening policy, at least early on in his term, just to establish his inflation-fighting credentials.
Mark Zandi
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