If underlying inflation begins to percolate higher, that will mean we will have to struggle with rising prices and higher interest rates.
More Quotes from Mark Zandi:
At a minimum, this will hit consumers' pocketbooksand perhaps their confidence. Before Katrina, Goldstein estimated that consumers' annual fuel bills this year would average about 250 more for gasoline and 400 more for home heating oil and natural gas than in 2004. Now he reckons those amounts will go up 30 percent to 75 percent. Costlier energy could adversely affect consumer spending, corporate profits and inflationor all three. We could be reaching a tipping point on consumer psychology, especially when people get their home heating bills, ... Those will be big.Mark Zandi
The rate of technical change, which is the most difficult thing to measure, seems to be slowing from the unprecedented pace of a few years ago.
Mark Zandi
It would take time for that to occur and during this period of adjustment -- some things might not get done -- maybe some crops won't be picked or some hotel rooms won't get cleaned.
Mark Zandi
The impact is going to be very significant -- it may shave as much as a half-percentage point from economic growth this year.
Mark Zandi
Given the crosscurrents in the economic inflation data, it will be difficult for him to be clear-cut.
Mark Zandi
Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.
Mark Zandi
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