Oil prices are volatile enough that you can't focus on one day's move. But later in the year, a combination of robust global economic recovery and tension in the Middle East are really ingredients for a big spike in oil prices, and that can truly spell disaster for an economy.
More Quotes from Lara Rhame:
On balance, it is a modestly dollar negative set of data. Retail sales growth was a little weaker than markets had expected, with a downward revision to the ex-auto sector.Lara Rhame
For the Fed, productivity is the antidote to inflation, and that's still very strong. It's inconceivable that the Fed would tighten in four out of its next five meetings.
Lara Rhame
I don't see future hiring robust enough to alleviate a lot of concern on the part of consumers. We've stopped shedding jobs, but over the next two quarters, we won't see very much job growth.
Lara Rhame
Certainly this Christmas shopping season is going to make for a lot of very negative headlines. The concern is that this weakness will be a self-reinforcing phenomenon, but the confidence numbers indicate that may not happen.
Lara Rhame
We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.
Lara Rhame
This was an honest-to-goodness better-than-expected report. There were no special factors in it that made it look artificially strong. The report also indicates that consumer fatigue may not be as severe as we had previously thought.
Lara Rhame
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Neutrality is at times a graver sin than belligerence.Louis D. Brandeis
The dance commonly begins about the middle of the afternoon or later, after sundown. When it begins in the afternoon, there is always an intermission of an hour or two for supper. The preliminary painting and dressing is usually the work of about two hours.
James Mooney