While the official productivity data look impressive, alternative measures that are equally reasonable show a much more subdued picture.
More Quotes from Jan Hatzius:
Some slippage in other categories is probably due given very strong gains in recent months.Jan Hatzius
The consumer numbers are certainly more important than normal.
Jan Hatzius
I'm not sure which form it will take -- maybe a lengthy period of subdued consumer spending or something more violent than that. But it's clear to me that households cannot continue to save 3 percent of their disposable income and grow debt at 10 percent per year.
Jan Hatzius
At this point I would have expected more of a boost from lower oil prices. If you'd told me before the war that the military action would go as smoothly as it did and that Saddam Hussein didn't blow up his oil facilities, I would have thought oil prices would be lower.
Jan Hatzius
Income figures ... were surprisingly low for December given the strong gains reported for the fourth quarter on Friday and the likelihood that bonuses would have boosted December gains.
Jan Hatzius
biggest pent-up negative wealth effect you can see in the economic data going back to 1952.
Jan Hatzius
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