We expect a big drop in September Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.
More Quotes from Ian Shepherdson:
There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.Ian Shepherdson
It signals that the labor market has now moved again to center stage in the Fed's analysis and policymaking process.
Ian Shepherdson
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
Ian Shepherdson
Even so, there is as yet no clear sign of a downturn in sales, despite the rise in mortgage rates over the past year, ... People are still shrugging off the rise in rates.
Ian Shepherdson
At its current level, confidence is consistent with real consumers' spending growth of about 3 percent -- not great, but not a double-dip.
Ian Shepherdson
Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
Ian Shepherdson
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