Stronger than expected gains in the manufacturing and service industries - coupled with higher labor costs - ignited inflation concerns, which led to the rise in mortgage rates this week.
More Quotes from Frank Nothaft:
There's no way we can sustain double-digit price appreciation year after year it just can't happen. We're going to see a return back toward the normal pace.Frank Nothaft
With the conflict in Iraq seemingly under control, the financial markets have shifted focus back onto the economy. Freddie Mac's most recent economic forecast recognizes that the first half of the year may be slower than originally thought, but that the second half will begin to pick up.
Frank Nothaft
Plummeting consumer confidence in September led markets to believe that the lack of job growth is wearing on the economy,
Frank Nothaft
The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent.
Frank Nothaft
Housing continued to help fuel the economy this year, accounting for about 20 percent of real GDP growth in the first quarter alone. Further, since the end of March long-term bond yields have fallen by more than a half of a percentage point, allowing interest rates on fixed-rate mortgage to decline as well. Consequently, both new and existing home sales in April reached all-time record highs.
Frank Nothaft
Concern over weaker consumer confidence and industrial production outweighed the pick-up in retail sales and business inventories causing interest rates to decline even further this week. Adding to the decline was a flight-to-quality in the bond market from nervous investors worried about falling stock prices and the possibility of war in the Middle East.
Frank Nothaft
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