David Rosenberg Quotes (58 Quotes)

If he and the homebuilding executives are assessing the market correctly, investors will do well to sell into the Katrina-inspired rally and lock in gains. And anyone thinking of buying a house now may wish to think again. The market is as vulnerable today as the last time we had this stretched affordability in 1989, ... It might not be on the same par as the equity bubble in the late '90s, but it's not far off.

The equity market is climbing a wall of worry right now.

Here's the story for equities twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.

If the Fed is truly data dependent, then what matters most...is the data flow for the second quarter. What do we know about the second quarter Well, not that much, but what we do know suggests a slowing to around a 2.5 annual rate.

For every pricing power story the Fed hawks and bond bears can find, we can probably match in the opposite direction.

We are excited for the opportunity to help create value for our investment partners with this new portfolio, which is located in our core market area, while continuing to carry out our mission--to provide responsibly managed apartment communities for people who appreciate superior service and exceptional value.

The first of the boomers turn 60 this year. They are about to retire, and they have been spending as if they were 30, for the last 30 years.

We think that countries and areas of activity that have been weakest in the last couple of years are likely to see the strongest rebound in growth. Thus, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands should see more marked recoveries than Spain and France, where activity has held up well.

We estimate the near-term loss in terms of output, employment and income in the affected area coupled with the surge in energy costs that impacts everyone will offset any future rebuilding by a factor of two to one.

Katrina's effects are being felt nationally-on the nation's transportation arteries, supply chains, chemical plants, airlines, leisurehotels, gasoline prices everywhere and retailing. The commercial impact is widespread.

This would provide the Fed some flexibility regarding future meetings.

When rates back up, growth slows ... quickly. Fully three-quarters of the time in the past five years when we endured a bond yield spasm like we have seen since mid-January, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth slowed the following quarter and by an average of one percentage point.

There is a historical pattern that everyone should be aware of because each of the past three newly appointed Fed chairman began their tenure with a quick succession of interest rate hikes.

This has nothing to do with whether the yield is too high or too low or whether it's over or undervalued. And it certainly has nothing to with foreign central bank activity. It's about the business cycle.

Energy and raw material demand in China has been one of the key drivers behind the strength in commodities. If China is raising rates and trying to slow growth, then we may see some tempering in those pressures.

Although an inverted yield curve does not always imply an economic recession, it has predicted a profit recession 100 per cent of the time.

I thought this was the most amazing thing you could do for people.

The big surprise in 1994 was that, despite all the inflation scares -- and there was tremendous inflation worry -- core inflation actually fell in 1994.

With the exception of the backward-looking Q4 GDP report, the data released today surprised to the downside.

Over the past three decades, the Fed tightened on eight occasions, five of these saw the yield curve invert,

(W) hat we are likely to see in Germany is the best year for consumer spending in a half decade. As a measure of how much pent-up demand there is in Germany, the average age of the auto fleet is at a record eight years.

A year ago, 'deflation' was dripping off everybody's lips. Today, core inflation is off its low, but it's about the same as it was a year ago, yet all anybody can talk about is how far the Fed will hike.

Whether it's lingering layoffs, receding real wage growth or cutbacks in healthpension benefits, corporate America is now in the process of shifting its lack of pricing power onto the backs of its workforce.

There's nothing in the tea leaves telling us we'll be seeing much labor-market buoyancy for several months.

So many clients are telling us that we are just plain wrong and there is inflation everywhere. But ... the bulk of these complaints come from folks who have kids in college ... Prices set according to supply and demand are flat or falling for the most part.

If the divergence between sales and inventories continues, the inventory-to-sales ratio will breach the critical five months' supply threshold by year-end, ... Price action is sure to follow.

We have one of the weakest growth rates ever during a tightening cycle, and we have to ask the question why the Fed still believes it is accommodative at 3.75 percent.

It's obvious that asset inflation has emerged as a chief policy concern. It complicates the policy picture going forward.

If the dollar decline is not orderly and triggers heightened inflation expectations and higher interest rates, equities will have trouble.

If the economy continues to muddle through at around 2 percent annualized growth, we could very well slip into deflation in the next two years,

Confidence declines of this magnitude typically happen around 'shocks' or 'events,' ... We don't really know what the 'shock' was this time around, but maybe we'll find out when the non-farm payroll report is released on Friday.

The glue that kept the consumer market together the last few years was the wealth effect from the housing boom.

Bizarre is not a strong enough word. We've never seen productivity growth this strong headed into the fifth year of a business expansion.

It is basically a subtle way to flash to the market that the negative economic consequences are resonating and that the Fed may not just look at this as a temporary soft patch this time.

There is no doubt that when I speak to hedge funds and real-money investors, they have some questions. They say that he has to prove his credentials right away.

I think it does complicate the rate hike picture and the near-term interest rate outlook.

A Bush win is good for asset managers but bad for life insurance companies.

The question must be asked as to what psychological impact there may be from this oft-cited number ... upon consumer sentiment. The unemployment rate and inflation are the most important determinants of consumer sentiment.

The consensus was too exuberant coming into this quarter -- and probably is too exuberant for the balance of the year, as far as I can see.

The Fed seems intent on raising rates through this Katrina business on the view that the pending rebuild stimulus will trump the near-term economic loss.

The employment cost index report adds to the growing list of evidence that there is very little in the way of cost pressures in the inflation pipeline.

There is no question that these are trends that are going to add to people's anxiety and the process has already started.

We are clearly in a state of economic uncertainty and the prudent thing to do in such times is to do nothing at all.

Fed action is not a fait accompli -- weakness might have to extend through the second half to lead to a Fed cut.

One has to wonder how long the consumer can continue to spend at ... dizzying rates without a material improvement in the labor market.

There is going to be near-term inflation. Is it going to be sustained I doubt it.

What all this spells is inflation from barely 0 percent all the way up to something that doesn't even make it to 2 percent. This is an easy money policy

The housing market has become so stretched that the affordability ratio for first-time buyers, the folks who drive the incremental demand in the real estate sector, has deteriorated to levels last seen in the third quarter of 1989.

Out of those five times, the economy fell into recession 100 per cent of the time.

Pretty heavy to where the average person would bore pretty quickly. This magazine has none of that. This magazine focuses on faith stories.